COVID-19 fatalities and internal conflict: Does government economic support matter?

This study examines the association between COVID-19 mortality rates and internal conflict and investigates the possible moderating role of government economic support during the pandemic years of 2020 and 2021. Our main hypothesis suggests that countries with lower levels of government economic support are more likely to experience a positive correlation between higher COVID-19 mortality rates and the emergence of internal conflict. Using cross-country data from over 100 countries and controlling for various factors that may influence internal conflict, our analysis provides some support for this hypothesis. The results suggest a possible moderating role for government economic support, with the evidence indicating a weakening or elimination of the association between COVID-19 mortality rates and internal conflict when government economic support is adequate. However, the moderating effect of government economic support is not always significant, and caution is needed when interpreting the results. Our analysis also highlights the potential risks associated with low levels of government economic support during the pandemic. Specifically, we find that in countries where the government's macro-financial package in response to the pandemic is less than approximately 25% of GDP, there is a possible risk of growth in civil disorder resulting from increased COVID-19 deaths per million.

COVID-19 fatalities and internal conflict: Does government economic support matter?

This study examines the association between COVID-19 mortality rates and internal conflict and investigates the possible moderating role of government economic support during the pandemic years of 2020 and 2021. Our main hypothesis suggests that countries with lower levels of government economic support are more likely to experience a positive correlation between higher COVID-19 mortality rates and the emergence of internal conflict. Using cross-country data from over 100 countries and controlling for various factors that may influence internal conflict, our analysis provides some support for this hypothesis. The results suggest a possible moderating role for government economic support, with the evidence indicating a weakening or elimination of the association between COVID-19 mortality rates and internal conflict when government economic support is adequate. However, the moderating effect of government economic support is not always significant, and caution is needed when interpreting the results. Our analysis also highlights the potential risks associated with low levels of government economic support during the pandemic. Specifically, we find that in countries where the government's macro-financial package in response to the pandemic is less than approximately 25% of GDP, there is a possible risk of growth in civil disorder resulting from increased COVID-19 deaths per million.

Governments' economic support for households during the COVID-19 pandemic and consumer confidence.

To combat the adverse consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, governments have implemented various economic policies. This study examines how different types of government economic support for households are associated with consumer confidence. Utilizing data from 35 countries in the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development for January 2020-October 2021 and applying panel fixed effect and system generalized methods of moments regressions, we show that higher levels of government economic support lead to higher levels of consumer confidence. The results also suggest that government income support for households has a stronger impact than debt/contract relief on consumer confidence during the pandemic in the full sample. Moreover, we find that debt/contract relief is a more effective policy to boost confidence in emerging economies. Finally, COVID-19 fatalities have a significant negative effect on consumer confidence.

Governments' economic support for households during the COVID-19 pandemic and consumer confidence

To combat the adverse consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, governments have implemented various economic policies. This study examines how different types of government economic support for households are associated with consumer confidence. Utilizing data from 35 countries in the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development for January 2020–October 2021 and applying panel fixed effect and system generalized methods of moments regressions, we show that higher levels of government economic support lead to higher levels of consumer confidence. The results also suggest that government income support for households has a stronger impact than debt/contract relief on consumer confidence during the pandemic in the full sample. Moreover, we find that debt/contract relief is a more effective policy to boost confidence in emerging economies. Finally, COVID-19 fatalities have a significant negative effect on consumer confidence.

Working from home and long-term housing wealth inequality in large cities of advanced economies

Purpose>The purpose of this study is to explain the potential long-term impacts of working from home on housing wealth inequality in large cities of advanced economies.Design/methodology/approach>This study is descriptive research and It supports the arguments by providing some emerging evidence from property markets in developed countries.Findings>The authors argue that due to the unique nature of the COVID-19 crisis, it will have a different and long-term impact on housing wealth inequality. Changes in the working arrangements of many professionals will change the housing demand dynamic across different suburbs and may lead to a reduction of the housing wealth gap in the long term. In this paper, the authors propose five mechanisms that may impact housing wealth inequality.Research limitations/implications>Long-term data is required to test the proposed conceptual model in this study and the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on housing wealth across and within suburbs of large cities.Practical implications>Policymakers and regulators may benefit from the discussions and suggestions provided in this study and consider the proposed avenues on how new changes in the working environment (remote working) may result in a reduction of housing wealth inequality.Originality/value>This study presents a new perspective about the potential long-term impacts of working from home that is posed by the COVID-19 pandemic on housing wealth inequality in large cities of developed economies.

Information source and tourist expenditure: evidence from Sarawak, Malaysia

Travel information is omnipresent. Yet, the relationship between the source of travel information and tourist expenditure remains underexplored. To address this gap, the present study examines how the source of travel information used by tourists, both pre-trip and in-destination, impacts on tourist expenditure. Using survey data collected from tourists who visited Sarawak, Malaysia prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, this study is among the first of its kind to investigate the role of information source on tourist expenditure in a developing tourism destination. The study reveals that tourists who used travel agencies/tour operators and magazines/newspapers prior to their visit are likely to spend more across all expenditure categories. While in destination, tourists tend to use the internet to find the best prices on various activities, leading to significantly lower expenditure across most categories. These findings have important implications for tourism policy makers and tour operators in developing tourism destinations, empowering them with insights to formulate targeted advertising and marketing communication strategies.

Government’s support for adoption of digital technologies and firms’ innovation during the COVID-19 pandemic

The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between government support, through technical assistance or subsidies, for adoption of digital technologies and the introduction of new or improved products or services by firms. By applying Probit regression to data provided in World Bank Enterprise Surveys covering the period in late 2020 to early 2021 for three lower-middle-income and high-income economies, we find that governmental support for adoption of digital technologies raised the probability of an enterprise's innovation in those economies.

Green property finance and CO2 emissions in the building industry

Contributing about 40% of the world's annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the building industry is tasked with reducing its energy consumption and its carbon footprint in accordance with the Paris Agreement. This study investigates the relationship between green property finance and the building industry's CO2 emissions across 98 high-income and developing economies for the period 2012–2018. Our results show that although green property finance expansions are significantly and negatively related to the industry's CO2 emissions in the full sample, this result is more evident for developing nations. This is a significant outcome for these countries since many of them are experiencing rapid but unchecked population growth and strong oil consumption. Policies to maintain this development during the COVID-19 pandemic are crucial because this crisis has curtailed the availability of green finance facilities, which has either slowed down or reversed any progress made.

Economic policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic and growth of nonperforming loans

Abstract In this paper, we investigate the relationship between various economic policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic (liquidity support, prudential policies, borrower support, asset purchase, and policy rate decisions) and the growth of nonperforming loans (NPLs) in 2020 across 47 economies. Controlling for other relevant determinants of NPLs, our regression analyses show that economies in which policymakers have used prudential and borrower support measures reported significantly slower growth of aggregate NPLs. The prudential measures also confirmed a more robust relationship with NPL reductions compared with borrower support measures. Added to this, non-mortgage consumer loans are found to be more sensitive than mortgage loans to economic policy responses.

Responses of REITs Index and Commercial Property Prices to Economic Uncertainties: A VAR Analysis

We use market participants’ perceived uncertainty to investigate the response of real estate investment trusts index (REITs Index) and commercial property prices to shocks in economic uncertainty. Using US quarterly data and applying a vector autoregression (VAR) model, our results show that an increase in market participants’ perceived uncertainty leads to a significant drop in the REITs Index and commercial property prices. In addition, we show that the REITs Index responds quicker to the uncertainty shocks than the commercial property prices. Our findings provide important implications for investors.

Globalization and the Outbreak of COVID-19: An Empirical Analysis

The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between the extension of globalization and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) case fatality rate (CFR) calculated on 28 July 2020 in more than 150 countries. Our regression analyses show that countries with higher levels of socio-economic globalization are exposed to higher levels of CFR. The positive association between the level of globalization of countries and their COVID-19 fatality rate remains robust, controlling for cross-country differences in economic development and demographics, health care costs, health care capacity, quality of governance and continental dummies.

Economic policy uncertainty, consumer confidence in major economies and outbound tourism to African countries

Uncertainty, which is the only certain thing about the future, influences economic agents, their behaviours and economic activity. Debates and concerns about policy uncertainty have intensified following events such as the financial crisis, Brexit and more recently, the Covid-19 pandemic. The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of changes in economic policy uncertainty and consumer confidence in a set of major economies on tourism flows to African countries. Using data over the period of 2005?2019 and applying panel difference generalized method of moments method, our results show that a positive change in consumer confidence in Canada, China, France, Japan, Russia and the United Kingdom (UK) has favorable impact on tourism departures from these countries to 25 African countries. We also find that a positive change in uncertainty in Canada, Russia, Spain and the UK has negative effect on tourist departures from these countries to African countries. The implications of the results for tourism development in African countries are discussed.

International Tourism and Outbreak of Coronavirus (COVID-19): A Cross-Country Analysis

This study examines the relationship between international tourism and COVID-19 cases and associated deaths in more than 90 nations. We use a cross-country regression analysis and find a positive correlation between international tourism and the cumulated level of COVID-19 confirmed cases and death by April 30, 2020. Our regression analyses show that countries exposed to high flows of international tourism are more prone to cases and deaths caused by the COVID-19 outbreak. This association is robust even after controlling for other socioeconomic determinants of COVID-19 outbreak and regional dummies. Based on our estimations, a 1% higher level of inbound and outbound tourism is associated with 1.2% and 1.4% higher levels of confirmed COVID-19 cases and death, respectively, controlling for other factors. When we normalize the number of cases and death by size of population, the statistical significance remains robust, especially for the COVID-19 deaths, while the effect size reduces.